India’s largest IT services and consulting firm, Tata Consultancy Services, will kick off the sector’s Q4 earnings season on April 9, followed by Wipro on April 16 and HCL Technologies on April 21. Among other large-cap firms, Tech Mahindra and Infosys will announce their results on April 22 and 23, respectively. Both HCL Technologies and Infosys had raised their full-year guidance in the previous quarter, to 4–4.5% year-on-year in constant currency terms (earlier 3–5%) and to 3–3.5% (from 2–3%), respectively, even as IT stocks have remained volatile in recent months amid the global AI narrative. Analysts expect Q4 earnings to show continued traction in total contract value (TCV) for IT companies. 

What analysts expect from IT firms in Q4FY26 earnings  

Among brokerages, ICICI Securities expects IT companies to report sequential constant currency (QoQ CC) revenue growth in the range of -0.3% to 3.2% in Q4FY26E, with mid-cap firms likely to lead the growth momentum. In its note, the brokerage expects Persistent Systems (3.2% QoQ CC) and Mphasis (2.5% QoQ CC) to outperform peers. Among large-cap firms, TCS is expected to post 1.4% QoQ CC growth while Infosys may see a marginal decline of 0.2%. HCL Tech is likely to report a 1.1% QoQ CC decline in overall revenue due to weakness in its software products segment, although its IT services and ER&D business is expected to grow by 1.4% sequentially. The brokerage also expects cross-currency tailwinds for the sector to remain modest, ranging from flat to 40 basis points sequentially in Q4. 

“We expect deal wins to be healthy, led by TechM ($1bn+). We expect deal TCV to be in line with the past four-quarter average for the rest of the pack. Companies have not yet seen any delay in deal closures due to uncertainty in energy prices (on account of the Middle East conflict),” the note stated.   

On the recent spate of acquisitions by  IT firms  in a bid to shore up capabilities in AI, cloud, and data analytics to boost AI-led revenue streams, for instance closure of TCS acquisition of Salesforce consulting firm Coastal cloud for $700 million, HCL Tech's  acquisition of Singapore-based Finerigic Solutions in January 2026, Infosys’s $465 million buy of Optimum Healthcare IT (expected to close in Q1 FY27 ), ICICI Securities analysts noted, "Acquisition intensity has increased for large-cap IT, likely in an attempt to lift revenue growth amid subdued industry growth and benefit from current attractive valuations of the sector."  

For Q4FY26E, analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expect the numbers to be “somewhat uneventful,” with sequential constant currency (QoQ CC) growth for large-cap IT firms projected in the range of -1.0% to 1.5%. Mid-cap companies are again expected to outperform, with growth estimated between -0.5% and 3.5%. “For 4Q, we expect aggregate revenue for our coverage universe to grow by 11.3% YoY while EBIT and PAT are likely to grow by 12.9% and 10.8% YoY (all in INR terms), respectively.”  

While stating though the analysts don't see any any major disruptions from the ongoing war, caveating that it could impact deal wins in the short term and no major deflationary shocks from AI implementation. “However, we concede that both these data sets are backward-looking. If the war persists, demand is likely to be affected, whereas AI deflation is more a question of what AI will be capable of in the next two to five years, rather than the last quarter,” their report on Indian IT noted.    

AI tailwind for the sector   

In March, Accenture reported 4% year-on-year revenue growth to $18 billion and bookings of $22.1 billion in Q2FY26. The company said that as clients finalise budgets for 2026, spending is expected to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels. The company said that AI is emerging as a key tailwind, with enterprises moving to implement foundational programmes to fully capture AI opportunities, investing in capacity to scale new areas, and digital-first firms transitioning from proof of concept (PoC) to production. 

On the back of this, analysts at Nomura in their read through for the sector from Accenture’s results noted that revenue growth momentum continuing to be strong in financial services with no noticeable change in the macroeconomic environment. “We expect the growth momentum in the financial services vertical to continue in the near-term for Indian IT services. We also expect AI projects to start becoming bigger as clients move from POC to live projects. However, a sharp growth revival hinges on macroeconomic improvement, particularly in the US. We prefer Infosys (INFO IN, Buy) and Cognizant (CTSH US, Buy) in large-caps (both Buy-rated), Coforge (COFORGE IN, Buy) in mid-caps and eClerx (ECLX IN, Buy) in small-caps,” the report said.  

In its recent update on the sector, Nuvama Institutional securities noted though the  Indian IT services industry is at crossroads again in the GenAI, it sees  the need for a system integrator-who can customise an enterprise' plug-and-play software's input and output as per the  requirements to always exist and the adoption curve of  B2B and B2C being very different when it comes to  any technology.  

 In its recent sector update, Nuvama Institutional Equities noted that while the Indian IT services industry is once again at a crossroads amid the rise of GenAI, the need for system integrators, who can customise enterprise plug-and-play software to suit specific input and output requirements, will continue to persist. The brokerage also highlighted that the adoption curve for B2B and B2C segments differs significantly when it comes to new technologies. “We do however believe Gen-Al adoption shall follow the technology adoption curve. IT Services firms shall face cannibalisation of revenue in the initial phase (which they are facing currently) before they reach the inflection point; post-this, the opportunity shall lead to an expansion of TAM ($300-400 billion by 2030 as per Infosys management). However, the companies are likely to undergo a pivot-from a headcount-driven to outcome-based revenue model. This shall lead to lower headcount addition and lower correlation with revenue growth in coming years,” the report stated.   

Noting that the recent sharp correction in IT stocks has made valuations across the sector highly attractive, the Nuvama report said, “We maintain estimates and lower target multiples slightly to factor in risks from possible higher Gen-Al disruption. We upgrade HCL Tech, Wipro, TechM and Hexaware to 'BUY'. We now have a 'BUY' on all the top 10 IT services companies.”   

FY27 growth guidance   

As most analysts are discounting further AI-led deflationary pressures and expect client budgets to remain broadly stable, with technology spending increasingly focused on cost optimisation, ICICI Securities said that while an escalation in US–Iran tensions could trigger a global recession and slow deal closures, a sustained downturn has historically accelerated the shift toward outsourcing. The brokerage expects Infosys to guide for 3–5% year-on-year constant currency (CC) growth and HCL Technologies for 4–6% CC growth in FY27, higher than FY26 growth at the mid-point, supported by healthy deal wins (TCV) and stable client budgets. 

On the other hand, Motilal Oswal Financial Services noted that exit rates for most large-cap IT companies appear relatively favourable. “We expect INFO to guide FY27 revenue growth of 1.5–4.5% YoY CC. The CQGR ask at the lower end is 0.5%, allowing for some deterioration in macros and headwinds from the Daimler ramp-down. There is potential for an upgrade if they backfill Daimler through the year.” For HCL Tech, which is the only other firm apart from Infosys that currently provides a full year guidance, the brokerage firm sees a 3–6% YoY CC growth. “The top-end assumes mild improvement in CQGR over FY26E while the bottom end assumes uncertainty from war. We expect products to be flat to slightly declining in FY27,” the report said.