Mixed trend in thali costs; veg steady, non-veg cheaper in March: Crisil

The average cost of preparing a home-cooked thali in India showed a mixed trend in March, with the vegetarian thali remaining flat year-on-year while the non-vegetarian thali fell 1%, according to data from Crisil. 

The monthly thali cost is calculated based on input prices across north, south, east, and west India, reflecting the impact on household expenditure and tracking key ingredients such as cereals, pulses, vegetables, edible oil, broilers, and cooking gas. 

Tomato, fuel costs offset relief from staples 

Despite lower prices of onions, potatoes, and pulses, the cost of a veg thali remained stable on a sharp rise in tomato, edible oil, and fuel prices. 

Tomato prices surged 33% year-on-year to ₹28 per kg in March 2026 from ₹21 per kg a year ago, driven by delayed transplantation in key producing states like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, which affected crop yields and supply. 

In contrast, onion prices declined 25% due to excess supply from overlapping late kharif and rabi arrivals, along with weak exports. Potato prices fell 13% on subdued demand from the HORECA (hotel, restaurant, and catering) sector and ongoing stock liquidation. 

Pulse prices fell 6% year-on-year, supported by higher opening stocks. Tur inventories for the July–June marketing year are estimated to be 20% higher while Bengal gram stocks for the January–December cycle are up 10%, exerting downward pressure on prices. 

Edible oil, LPG prices rise 

Vegetable oil prices rose 6% year-on-year amid global supply disruptions, while LPG cylinder prices rose 14%, limiting the overall decline in thali costs. 

The cost of a non-veg thali fell primarily due to a 2% year-on-year decline in broiler prices, which account for nearly half of the total cost, along with lower onion, potato, and pulse prices. 

Sequential decline in March 

On a month-on-month basis, the cost of veg and non-veg thalis declined 3% and 2%, respectively, in March. 

Tomato and potato prices fell 6% each, while onion prices dropped 14%, supported by higher arrivals and weak domestic and export demand. 

The non-veg thali cost also eased due to a 2% decline in broiler prices amid lower consumption during Navratri, when many consumers avoid non-vegetarian food. 

Pushan Sharma said the stability in veg thali costs reflects offsetting trends, with lower staple prices balancing higher costs of tomatoes, edible oil, and fuel. He noted that rising crude oil prices amid the West Asia conflict have pushed up edible oil prices, particularly palm and sunflower oil, with global trends feeding into domestic markets. 

"In the near term, geopolitical uncertainties are expected to keep vegetable oil prices high. Onion prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to high arrivals and sluggish export demand. However, with an estimated decline of 10% in production and reported damage to the summer crop (crucial for lean-season supply), onion prices are expected to gradually recover in the coming months. A resurgence in exports or support from the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Development Federation (NAFED) could further support prices," he said.